The bond market doesn’t matter—as long as stocks go up, everything’s fine

Try telling that to the U.S. government when it has to refinance trillions in debt this year at much higher interest rates.

The reality is, the U.S. needs a recession. A slowdown would allow refinancing at lower rates, giving the Fed room to cut and stimulate growth.

But the Fed is stuck. It can’t cut with inflation risks rising under the new administration—tariffs are back, spending is already outpacing the previous administration by $4 trillion, and equity markets are overheated.

In the current setup, a recession isn’t just likely—it may be the only path forward.