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Shipping and logistics company predicting retail shelf shortage and mass layoffs

T
May 2, 2025 · 12:28

A friend posted this on their socials today.

Here's an update that my company sent out yesterday talking about imports from China and how it's affecting the US.
They're predicting layoffs in retail spaces and inventory shortages. As we all know, there have also been some crazy price increases, and companies passing off the tariff fees directly to the customer.
For those that don't know, I work for the 3rd largest freight brokerage and logistics company in the US.
This is verified as data that is ok to share externally outside my company.

Industry News, Speculation & Forecast:
a. China tariffs forecast to punch gigantic hole in US port traffic. While the U.S.-China trade conflict—driven by tariffs under President Trump—has spotlighted the decline in
trans-Pacific container traffic, a deeper analysis of port-level data reveals a broader and more severe impact. Per the Census Bureau data, the list of American ports that
processed the most containerized imports from China in 2024 was led by Los Angeles, at 22,237,485 million metric tons, or 51%, of the port’s total 43,912,894 tons of global
cargo. China accounted for 8,341,200 tons, or 61%, of a total 13,592,209 tons through the neighboring Port of Long Beach, the second-highest total. Newark, New Jersey, was
third and the leading East Coast gateway at 7,520,488 tons, a 23% share, of a total 32,995,507 tons. 'No way' US can recoup lost China container imports: Analyst

i. Import categories from China include items made of plastic including toys, household goods and personal care items, 46%; residential and office furniture, 46%; nuclear
reactors, 41%; electronics ranging from big screen TVs to electric blankets, 40%; iron and steel goods, 47%; and toys and sports equipment, 88%. Companies are
rapidly shifting their sourcing to countries like Vietnam, Thailand, India, Malaysia, and Indonesia in anticipation of the end of Trump’s 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs.

b. Apollo Global Management forecasts a sharp domestic freight slowdown by mid-May, likely triggering mass layoffs in trucking and retail sectors. The ongoing freight recession
is straining trucking firms, while retailers face inventory shortages, disrupted supply chains, and falling consumer demand due to tariffs and inflation. Consumer confidence is at
record lows, with rising credit delinquencies signaling broader financial stress. Corporate spending is also dropping, with declining orders and rising inventories prompting
investment cuts and potential layoffs across multiple industries. Mass layoffs in trucking and retail coming - Apollo