Weak April Report Could Rattle Markets, But May and June Look Even Worse.

If April jobs report tomorrow is weak, markets will freak. If it is strong, markets simply will already move on to May and June's jobs report. The reason why we think May and June jobs reports are going to be very weak is because three sectors basically drive all of seasonal job growth in those two months, and at least 2 of those 3 sectors (leisure and hospitality, and logistics) will undershoot.

The logistics sector employment will be hit in May. So another way to look at this is, that the number of container ships departing China for US peaked on 4/16 and plunged 45% since...it takes 21 days to arrive at US...so this means that May's payroll period exactly falls in this period of import volume plunge.

But above all, it's the leisure and hospitality sector that will be account for the weakness in May and June.