Halfway between Hawai‘i and Mexico on the bottom of the sea floor is an area called the Clairon-Clipperton zone (CCZ), where potato-sized rocks litter the abyss. Those rocks carry nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese in concentrations most land deposits can only envy. The Metals Company (TMC) controls the two largest private exploration blocks there and, after a decade of engineering and politicking, suddenly finds Washington pushing to let US firms mine first. This is why that combination matters.
# 1 | TMC in a nutshell
TMC came public by SPAC in 2021 and now trades on Nasdaq at **$3.50** at time of writing with a market value near $1.3 billion. It owns **NORI-D** and **TOML**, adjoining licences that together cover about 97 000 km² of the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ). Company surveys estimate *1.6 billion tonnes of nodules* **($350 billion+)** inside those blocks—enough metal, if fully processed, to deliver roughly 16 Mt of nickel, 2 Mt of copper, 1.5 Mt of cobalt and 350 Mt of manganese. ([Project Diamond](https://investors.metals.co/static-files/a3609ed1-fab9-4b97-a00f-63a255091de9?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) In 2022 the firm and its partner Allseas ran the first full-scale system test since the 1970s, pumping 3 000 t of nodules up a four-kilometre riser with no major hitches. ([NORI and Allseas Lift Over 3,000 Tonnes of Polymetallic Nodules to Surface from Planet’s Largest Deposit of Battery Metals, as Leading Scientists and Marine Experts Continue Gathering Environmental Data](https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2022/11/14/2555061/0/en/NORI-and-Allseas-Lift-Over-3-000-Tonnes-of-Polymetallic-Nodules-to-Surface-from-Planet-s-Largest-Deposit-of-Battery-Metals-as-Leading-Scientists-and-Marine-Experts-Continue-Gatheri.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
# 2 | How the ISA and the CCZ got here
The nodules lie outside every country’s exclusive-economic zone, so the **International Seabed Authority (ISA)**—a U-N body created by the 1982 Law of the Sea—acts as gate-keeper. At first the ISA wrote only scientific “prospecting” rules, but once it finished the nodule exploration regulations in 2000, interest took off. The short timeline below shows the acceleration:
**2000 - ISA adopts its first Mining Code rule-book** → *Regulations on Prospecting & Exploration for Polymetallic Nodules* approved 13 July 2000.|Opens the legal door; seven “pioneer” state entities (India, Japan’s DORD, Ifremer, Russia’s Yuzhmorgeologiya, China COMRA, IOM & South Korea) rush in 2001-04 with 15-yr exploration contracts.
**2010** \- **Second rule-book** → Regulations for *Polymetallic Sulphides* adopted 7 May 2010. Expands target list from nodules to seafloor massive-sulfide (SMS) copper-gold deposits.
**2012** \- **Third rule-book** → Regulations for *Cobalt-rich Ferromanganese Crusts*. Completes the trio; ISA can now issue exploration permits for all three deep-sea ore types.
**2011** \- **NORI (TMC’s arm) wins CCZ licence** – first private-sector nodule block, sponsored by Nauru. Signals the pivot from state research to commercial juniors.
**2013 & 2016** \- **UK Seabed Resources** (now Loke CCZ) grabs UK1 & UK2 contracts (58 600 km² + 74 800 km²). A Western major (originally Lockheed-Martin) planting its flag in the CCZ.
**2015-17** \- **Wave of new contractors** – GSR/DEME, China Minmetals, Cook Islands Investment Corp, Beijing Pioneer, etc. First Chinese private contracts (e.g., Beijing Pioneer 2019). Contractor roster grows to 22, half of them corporates.
**Aug-Sep 2017** \- **Japan (JOGMEC) lifts SMS ore** 1 600 m off Okinawa trough—world-first pilot lift (16 t).|Proof-of-concept: hardware can survive depth, slurry up rock.
**2019–22** \- **Cook Islands** passes **Seabed Minerals Act 2019** & grants first three exploration licences (2022). A Pacific state inside its EEZ says “yes,” creating new private plays (CIIC, CIC, Moana).
**Jun 2021** \- **Nauru fires the “Two-Year Rule”** at ISA. Starts a hard countdown (to Jul-2023) to finish exploitation regulations, sparking global media frenzy.
**Oct-Nov 2022** \- **TMC/Allseas pilot** – 3 000 t nodules sucked & pumped 4 km to surface; 86 t/hr sustained.|First integrated nodule harvest since the 1970s; shows commercial kit is almost road-ready.
**Jan 2024** \- **Norway’s Storting opens 281 000 km² of Arctic shelf** for mineral exploration. First OECD nation to green-light seabed mining inside its EEZ; licences expected 2024-25.
**Apr 24 2025 -** \*\*U.S. Executive Order – “Unleashing America’s Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources.”\*\*|Directs NOAA & Interior to fast-track seabed mining licences within 12 months, pushes DoD stockpile studies and user-friendly permitting—biggest single policy tail-wind to date for TMC et al.
Basically,
**Reg book → Contracts → Pilots → National laws → Big-power EO.**
Every new line in that sequence tightens the feedback loop (capital chases clarity).
**ISA’s docket grew from 7 contracts (2004) to 22 today.**
That’s triple the players and a loud market signal.
**First hardware wins (JOGMEC 2017 & TMC 2022) prove the tech.**
We can actually go in and get the rocks, it’s not just a fantasy.
# 3 | Prize pool
U-S G-S and ISA studies peg the whole CCZ at ≈ 21 billion tonnes of nodules containing 0.27 Bt nickel, 0.23 Bt copper, 0.05 Bt cobalt and 5.95 Bt manganese. At late-April spot prices—nickel $15 790/t, copper $9 325/t, cobalt $24 300/t, manganese ore $150/t—that rock is worth **$9-10 trillion** before recovery losses.
TMC’s two blocks alone represent about $360 billion of in-situ metal. Even if engineering recovery, royalties and operating costs whittle that down to 20 percent of gross rock value, the prize is still **$70 billion-plus**, tens of times larger than the company’s current valuation.
# 4 | TMC’s mineral pool in the CCZ
**Nickel – the energy-density workhorse**
Roughly 70 % of global nickel still goes into stainless steel, but the fastest-growing slice is battery cathodes—especially high-nickel chemistries such as NMC 811 and Tesla’s NCA. More nickel per cell means longer range for EVs and lower cost per kilowatt-hour, so automakers from VW to Ford are scrambling for class-I nickel supply. ([Nickel market forecast to be in 198,000 ton surplus in 2025, says INSG](https://www.mining.com/web/nickel-market-forecast-to-be-in-198000-tonnes-surplus-in-2025-says-insg/?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
**Copper – the wiring of the energy transition**
Copper is the best affordable conductor we have, which is why every wind turbine, solar farm, EV traction motor and fast-charging cable is stuffed with it. BloombergNEF calculates that a megawatt of solar or wind needs up to five times as much copper as a comparable fossil-fuel plant. Without new copper, grid expansion and renewables stall. ([The key role of copper in the transition to renewable energy • CuSP](https://www.cuspuk.com/news/copper-in-renewable-energy/?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
**Cobalt – stability and strength**
Cobalt’s unique role is to keep high-energy batteries safe; it prevents thermal runaway in nickel-rich cathodes and raises cycle life. Even as some chemistries migrate to low-cobalt designs, aviation and defense still rely on cobalt-based super-alloys that can survive the searing cores of jet engines and gas turbines. ([mcs2025.pdf - Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2025/mcs2025-cobalt.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
**Manganese – the quiet giant**
About 90 % of manganese goes into steel to boost hardness and wear resistance, but a new demand leg is forming in batteries. Lithium-iron-manganese-phosphate (LMFP) cathodes offer higher voltage than standard LFP cells, and Tesla, CATL and BYD have all filed LMFP patents. If that chemistry scales, manganese shifts from bulk alloy metal to critical battery mineral overnight. ([Manganese Market 2025: Rising EV Battery Demand and Supply Chain Shifts ...](https://nai500.com/blog/2025/01/manganese-market-2025-rising-ev-battery-demand-and-supply-chain-shifts-drive-recovery/?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
Taken together, the four elements inside CCZ nodules are the backbone of stainless steel, electric motors, battery cathodes and high-temperature alloys—the hardware of electrification and re-industrialisation. That is why automakers, grid builders and even defense ministries will pay attention when a new, non-Chinese supply source appears.
# Mineral breakdown for TMC’s NORI-D + TOML blocks
Within TMC’s two CCZ licence areas lie four metals that matter. Geologists calculate about **16 million tonnes of nickel** in those nodules; at late-April spot pricing near **$15,800 a tonne**, that single element is worth roughly **$250 billion** in the ground. Nickel is followed by **two million tonnes of copper**, and at roughly **$9,300 a tonne** that copper carries another **$19 billion** of gross value. The high-value stabiliser for battery cathodes—**cobalt—totals 1.5 million tonnes**; multiplied by a spot price a shade above **$24,000 a tonne**, its share comes in near **$36 billion**. Finally, there is the bulk workhorse: **about 350 million tonnes of manganese**. Even at a modest benchmark of **$150 a tonne** for 44 % ore, that volume adds roughly **$53 billion** more.
Add the four slices together and you arrive at **≈ $360 billion** of in-situ metal value before accounting for recovery losses, processing costs or royalties. In other words, the nickel alone is a quarter-trillion-dollar prize, copper and cobalt provide the high-margin spice, and manganese rounds out the stack with sheer tonnage; together they explain why a company worth barely over a billion dollars is chasing rocks four kilometres under the Pacific.
# 5 | Enter the White House
On **24 April 2025**, President Trump signed *“Unleashing America’s Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources.”* The order commands NOAA to issue exploration and production permits **within 12 months** and tells the Defense Department to evaluate seabed metals for the strategic stockpile. ([Unleashing America's Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/unleashing-americas-offshore-critical-minerals-and-resources/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) Because the United States has never ratified the Law of the Sea, the order effectively builds a **parallel U-S permitting path** outside the ISA’s still-unfinished rule-book. For TMC that means it can pursue two doors at once—ISA exploitation approval and a faster domestic licence—dramatically reducing timeline risk.
# 6 | Macro tail-winds
* **Trade-war 2.0.** Successive tariff rounds on EVs, solar gear and tech metals are compelling the E-U, Japan and India to lock in non-Chinese supply.
* **A softer dollar.** Reuters data show the Dollar Index down near **99.2**, a three-year low, as policy uncertainty weighs on U-S assets. ([Wall St muted, oil drops amid trade fog; earnings, data loom | Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2025-04-28/)) A weaker greenback makes any dollar-priced nickel or cobalt export cheaper to overseas buyers.
* **Critical-metal deficits.** Forecasts from Wood Mackenzie and Benchmark Minerals call for a 400-kt nickel shortfall by 2028 and the first material cobalt deficit by 2027—both driven by battery demand.
* **ESG arbitrage.** Land-based nickel growth is coming from high-carbon Indonesian HPAL and tailings-heavy laterites; CCZ nodules contain no sulfur, mercury or arsenic and sit loosely on the seabed, giving TMC an easier ESG sell to Western regulators.
Put together, those factors could let TMC sell large volumes abroad at attractive margins just as supply gaps open and the dollar gives foreign customers extra pricing power.
# 7 | Potential issues
When TMC debuted via SPAC in September 2021, the stock sprinted to an intraday high of **$12.45** only days after the merger closed. A meme-fuelled wave of retail buying briefly pushed volume past 25 million shares a day.
The euphoria didn’t last. By late 2021 the shares were trading below **$5** as redemptions stripped the SPAC of most of its trust cash, leaving management to fund operations through successive equity raises. A year later, after a PIPE that issued **38 million new shares for just $0.80 apiece**, the price slipped under **$1** and spent most of 2023 bumping along the penny-stock floor. [Metals](https://investors.metals.co/news-releases/news-release-details/tmc-secures-30m-investment-path-commercial-seafloor-nodule?utm_source=chatgpt.com)[Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TMC/history/)
Dilution became a theme:
* **August 2022:** 38 M shares + 19 M warrants in a committed PIPE. [Metals](https://investors.metals.co/news-releases/news-release-details/tmc-secures-30m-investment-path-commercial-seafloor-nodule?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
* **December 2023 shelf:** SEC registration covering up to 200 M additional shares. [Metals](https://investors.metals.co/news-releases/news-release-details/metals-company-announces-us175-million-registered-direct?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
* **Nov 2024 direct offering:** 17.5 M shares and the same number of five-year warrants at **$1.00**—a 60 % discount to the SPAC-era peak. [Stock Titan](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/TMC/the-metals-company-announces-us-17-5-million-registered-direct-fr1myvo25hhl.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
Each financing kept the lights on—cash burn averages **$80 M a year**—but it also dragged book value per share lower and kept a lid on rebounds. The stock finally bounced off a **$0.72** 52-week low in late-2024, doubling on the Trump executive-order headline, yet even at today’s **≈$3.40** it still sits **70 % below** that original 2021 frenzy. [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TMC/key-statistics/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
**TL;DR**
TMC’s share price has taken its knocks, but deep-sea nodules are still one of the few metal frontiers left. Washington’s new fast-track order and rising trade frictions are pushing seabed mining from curiosity to near-term industry. TMC controls the largest private resource—about **$360 billion** worth of nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese—yet the market values the company at only **≈ $1 billion**. High risk, high asymmetry: if the permits land, the re-rating could be dramatic. And the only thing things in the way of this happening are the NOAA and the and ISA. The ISA has already been paving this road for 20 years, and while the NOAA doesn't love this executive order, they're actually not opposed to it. And even if they were, it just doesn't seem like federal science and regulatory agencies will be stopping many executive orders anytime soon.