I see a lot of doom and gloom here, but its been 6 months since the market has slowly been adjusting the reality that we are heading towards a slow down, but to what degree is unknown.
Before the tax reversal, fear and sentiment was pushing towards about a 22% S&P drop, and 16% Dow. It probably would of continued down.
Now the market doesn't feel it will ultimately be that bad, but not as good as it was before, so its priced slightly higher with marginal ups and downs so far.
Poor earnings will shock at first, even though a lot expect it and some has been priced in, with dips, followed by rises on the belief the market is still a good place to invest in. This will continue, probably with a couple panic moments where maybe you can snag a quick one, but will then rebound and rise to a less fearful state.
I think end of 2021-early 2023 is our closest similar unofficial recession. It will probably go up and down within a certain threshold. Most likely with a gradual downward slop (5-8% over the next 2 years) as people buy dips and take bets on the future. Unless you think its never returning to before, which I don't think the market believes, it will go back up.
I think the hardest to account for, is Trump dumps though..... so yea there's always that, lol.