We just printed an incredible hammer, bullish pin candle, which is a strong signal of potential upside. But let me be clear: a single candle does not guarantee that we’re fully out of the bearish woods or that we’ll move higher in a straight line. It’s important to remain flexible and continuously evaluate the evolving market dynamics.
Here’s what matters next: • Key Level: If SPY can push toward the $570 level and former President Trump announces successful trade deals, the macro environment could shift significantly. • Catalysts: The market’s recent weakness has largely been driven by uncertainty. If Trump brings clarity on trade and the Federal Reserve cuts rates in June, these events could align to propel markets higher, potentially even above $570. • Risk Shift: In this scenario, the risk shifts onto the bears, not the bulls.
At this stage, any pullback should be seen as a dip-buying opportunity until this uptrend exhausts itself. However, I do not expect a straight-line rally to $570 choppy price action with possible retests of recent lows should be expected along the way.
We are in a fragile uptrend, meaning it’s still vulnerable to broader risks. If you’ve been overly bearish and failed to respect the fact that markets bounce aggressively when oversold, you’re likely to experience continued struggles in the coming days and weeks just as we’ve seen recently.
Final Recap: If SPY reaches the 570–575 range, and Trump successfully resolves trade uncertainties, we could see a panic-buying rally that retests All-Time Highs. However, if trade talks break down and negative news emerges, I believe SPY could revisit the 480–500 zone before the broader market resumes its longer term growth trajectory.