Me not buying in is the only thing keeping the market at these valuations
I went 100% cash on the Christmas dip. I assumed the market would dip based on uncertainty. In this time since Christmas, the market has seen:
- Consumer sentiment at historical bottoms.
- US dollar falling around a 10%
- The bond market acting up.
- All the indicators of a recession showing.
- Most US based companies reducing their outlook based on economic reasons.
- Companies firing in the US due to the short term effect of tariffs on prices.
- Trade partners looking for other partners out of uncertainty.
- The US administration pulling some 'insider trading' pump and dump bait with tariffs and an 'internal group of discussion with Wall Street'.
- Changes 'soft-required' to some companies operations (ousting DEI, guidelines on operating in the US).
- Retailer investors fear index at maximum levels.
And the effect of this? SPY is down a mere 7%.
And you have to thank me for this. If I would have been invested the SPY, it would be trading at 300 as of today. The world would be in a recession, Cassandra Michael Burry would be throwing fireworks for predicting the market (being right twice makes up for being wrong a 100 times), gay bears would be out of their caves fucking your wife's boyfriends in their Lambos.
I know the day I reinvest the market will plummet. Day to day I start to think more and more that I'm missing out and that the market seems to be stable. A part of me thinks that it's my civic duty to not buy in so the world economy can stay healthy but I'm becoming greedy.
Positions:
None - So you can buy calls (I'll maybe post when I buy in again so you can buy puts).