**My Position**
See screenshot of the table for my positions and projections. There are two screenshots because I had to open another Robinhood account since I reached my SPY options holding limit (3600 contracts).
**My Thoughts**
**I. The Setup No One Sees Coming**
You’ve seen this before. Not the chart. The moment. A sharp drop. A confusing headline. Everyone bails. The algorithms freeze. And then, boom - the narrative flips, and everything rips.
That’s the setup right now. SPY is down, volatility is up, and everyone’s arguing about tariffs like it’s Econ 101. But underneath that? A $0.14 option is hiding in plain sight. Deep OTM. December expiration. Sitting there like a scratcher ticket no one scratched. This isn’t a normal trade. It’s a cheap swing at a high-conviction reversal. The kind of bet that looks dumb right before it doesn’t.
**II. Trump Does What Trump Does**
Trump negotiates like he’s writing headlines. Go big, go scary, then walk it back and declare victory with a simple tweet. It’s not theory — it’s his playbook: NAFTA, NATO, North Korea, China (round one). Every time: chaos first, deal later. Now he’s back, and he’s swinging tariffs again. The first shot was expected — China. But then he blindsided everyone by going after Canada and Mexico too. Europe followed. Suddenly it wasn’t just a trade policy. It was a global pile-on. But Trump always wants a win. And wins, for him, come fast. If he starts rolling back these tariffs - even if China stays frozen - the market doesn’t need a resolution. It just needs a direction.
**III. What the Math Says**
As of April 17, 2025, SPY closed at $526. The $760 call expiring December 19 is priced at $0.14. Using a projected mark of $678 and the same moneyness ratio (678/760), the equivalent August 15 strike is $590 and closed at $5.15. That $678 level isn’t fantasy. It’s the pre-tariff SPY close of $612 plus the same 10.8% gain SPY posted over the same stretch last year.
At a cost of $0.14 and a value of $5.15, the return is 36x.Once SPY hits $678, sell—whatever the option’s trading at, that’s the exit. No greed, no guessing—just lock it and walk. Mission accomplished.
**IV. The COVID Rebound: Redux**
Remember that 2020 move? From the March 23 low of $218.26, SPY ripped to $323.41 by June 8 — a 48% rebound in just over two months. That took a Fed bazooka, Treasury backing, and trillions in stimulus checks — all just to steady the ship. This time? There’s no rescue plan. No toolkit. No runway. Just one man, one mood, one tweet. “The tariff war is over—victory is in hand” – DJT
