I posted a bit ago about my UNH short that worked out very well, and I've been reluctant to post things that aren't either closed or essentially already played out. But I figure this one is the last truly spicy one left in my portfolio at the moment and I figured I would share it as well. As a caveat, this is not investment advice. My overall portfolio is extremely conservative, so I can take some (fairly crazy) flyers here and there to get a bit of alpha.
I've been (very happily) shorting TSLA in the medium-term. I can get into the full thesis later if anyone cares (it's not different than a majority of other bear cases on TSLA) but I started taking positions as soon as Elmo decided giving a Nazi salute was a cool idea. I like to enter positions with options strategies that are medium to long term (1 month or longer to expiry, a lot of LEAPS usually). I tend to have a mix of spreads and naked positions.
With TSLA I have three positions outstanding.
(1) April 25 2025 200/230 Bear Put Vertical - paid about 69k several months ago. My original thinking back when I bought it was to close it before the earning tonights. Thinking about rolling it outwards at least a week, though it's pretty expensive. If not, I'm also considerng roughly halving it before market close so that I've got my basis back and I'm just playing with house money on tonight's earnings print.
(2) May 16 2025 235/250 Bear Put Vertical - paid about 15k the day after Trump cancelled the tariffs, figuring that the bounce upwards was really overpriced. This is another one I may cut in half.
(3) June 2025 Bear Put Vertical - paid about 200/240 - paid relatively the most for this (40k) last week. It has a fair bit of time to expiry, so despite the bad pricing, I'm going to let this one ride a bit longer before re-evaluating a trim or closure of the position.
All together, these open positions are about 125k in cost basis, sitting at around 100k in paper profits. It's bit more risk than I like given the bizarre price action that TSLA exhibits, even when it missed and even when it gives bad but blurry near team guidance. On the flip side, I think the fundamental story here is really really bleak. Elon has to successfully sell investors on some new radical fantasyland project to avoid a bad day tomorrow. I don't think simply saying "I'm out of politics and focused on my companies" is going to cut it.
