Everyone’s acting like we’ve hit the bottom, but I’m not buying it. The market seems priced for a light 10% tariff scenario, yet the global trade situation is still a mess.
There’s been little to no progress with China, and deals with other economies aren’t faring much better. The Fed probably won’t jump in with cuts just because of some trade-driven volatility either.
A lot of big U.S. companies rely heavily on global markets, and I don’t think that risk is fully priced in yet. This is more like a calm before another drop.
To be clear, I’m not cheering for a crash; many people’s retirement accounts are on the line. But if there’s still a high probability of another 30%, 40%, or even 50% drop from here, then no, the market hasn’t bottomed. And in that case, shorting isn’t necessarily a bad move.