# Fundamental Overview:
Philip Morris International (PM) has delivered solid financial results in recent quarters, underpinned by growth in both traditional combustibles and next-generation smoke-free products.
**Recent Earnings Trend:**
In 2024, PM consistently beat expectations, with revenue and earnings on an upward trajectory.
Example:
1. Q4 2024 net revenues were $9.7 billion (up 7.3% YoY), and adjusted EPS rose 14% YoY to $1.55, topping forecasts. This capped a year in which organic net revenue grew high-single digits and adjusted EPS grew \~9% (constant currency).
2. Q3 2024 was similarly strong, with revenues of $9.9 billion (+8.4% YoY) and adjusted EPS $1.91 (+14% YoY) beating estimates.
3. Earlier in 2024, growth was steadier: Q2 saw $9.5 B revenue (+5.6% YoY) and adjusted EPS $1.59 (flat YoY, but +10.6% ex-currency), while Q1 delivered $8.9 B revenue (+9.7%) and adjusted EPS $1.50 (+8.7%). PM has guided Q1 2025 adjusted EPS at $1.58–1.63 (vs. $1.50 in Q1 2024), on revenue of \~$9.1 B (+3% YoY). Notably, the company raised full-year forecasts multiple times last year; it now projects 2025 adjusted EPS of $7.04–7.17, implying \~8–10% growth.
# Business Segments:
PM has two focus points: traditional cigarettes and smoke-free products is central to its story. Marlboro Cigarettes still contribute significant revenue, and pricing power in this segment has driven gains – in Q4, combustible net revenue grew \~6% organically on high single-digit price increases.
Now, PMI’s future growth is clearly fueled by smoke-free products (notably the IQOS heated tobacco system and **ZYN nicotine pouches**) now comprise about 40% of total revenues and an even higher share of profit (42% of gross profit in Q4). In 2024, smoke-free net revenues grew at a double-digit pace (+9% YoY in Q4, +14% in Q3), showing people aren't retarded and care about their health. IQOS has \~30.8 million users globally (as of mid-2024), and saw double digit volume growth in the EU and Japan, if Japanese mfs are using it, then it's some good stuff. Heated tobacco unit shipment volumes rose 13%+ in 2024.
ZYN nicotine pouches are the hottest fucking thing in the US \~50% YoY in 2024. In Q4 alone, US ZYN volume jumped 42% to 165 million cans after PM got rid of supply constraints. Geographically, PM is well diversified: it has strongholds in the EU (Spain and Germany), Asia (Japan’s IQOS market share >29%). The US is now sucking up all the ZYNs (I have one in my mouth right now as I am typing this in class), and PMI has also regained US rights for IQOS as of 2024, giving me and other citizens more stuff to be addicted to.
# Guidance & Outlook:
PMI’s management is optimistic heading into 2025. They forecast net revenue growth of \~6–8% and continue to see smoke-free products driving \~10–12% HTU volume growth and an even larger +34–41% surge in ZYN volume this year. This outlook led PM to project 2025 EPS above consensus. PM are pussies and has a track record of conservative guidance and “beat-and-raise” performance, which has investors with a larger boner than after a gas station rhino pill. The company did take a one-time charge in 2024 (Canadian litigation settlement), causing a GAAP loss in Q4, but excluding bullshit like that, PM’s earnings quality is strong.
# What the Wall Street Virgins are Saying:
Wall Street analysts has a positive outlook on PMI, albeit with a range of targets. In recent months, several analysts have hiked their price targets.
For example:
1. Citi raised its target to $180 (from $163) while reiterating a Buy, citing the company’s strong growth prospects (smoke-free transformation and earnings momentum).
2. Morgan Stanley lifted its target to $155 (Overweight) after Q4, highlighting confidence in PMI’s robust 2025 guidance[markets.businessinsider.com](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/analysts-fail-to-light-up-philip-morris-stock-despite-price-target-hikes-1034328420#:~:text=Morgan%20Stanley%20analyst%20Eric%20Serotta,tobacco%20group%E2%80%99s%20robust%20growth%20prospects).
3. Stifel went to $160 (Buy), calling Q4 results “the kind we have become accustomed to” – i.e., consistently strong.
4. UBS raised its target to $120 (from $105) but kept a Sell, showing caution even though PMI’s volume growth and improved currency outlook. But UBS analysts are pussies.
**My positions: 10 x calls $165 strike expiring 04/25**
TL:DR: ZYN good = PM good = Stock go up
https://preview.redd.it/llcufmt9d9we1.png?width=2115&format=png&auto=webp&s=49d82082c4ad760bd87d263f0983f7775f52915a
