From 2000 to 2017, the U.S. experienced **two bear markets**. Since 2018, we've now had **four bear markets** — in **2018, 2020, 2022, and 2025**. This is historically abnormal and suggests that **U.S. stocks may no longer be as reliable** as they once were.
In fact, since the market peak in **late 2021**, the S&P 500 closed around **4,800**. As of now, it's at **5,200**, which is only about a **8.3% nominal return** over more than three years.
But when you factor in:
- **Cumulative inflation** of around **15–18%** since late 2021
- A **weaker U.S. dollar** Your **real return is negative**. So if you simply held U.S. stocks, you likely **lost purchasing power**.
**Is my assessment wrong here?** Are U.S. stocks entering a phase of **Japan-style stagnation**, where nominal prices might go up, but real returns stay flat or negative for years?