There’s 1.4 BILLION proof gallons of whiskey aging in barrels across the U.S.
We only drank 79 million proof gallons domestically last year.
That's an 18:1 ratio of supply to demand.
Sales have been declining for 3 years straight.
Global demand? Not your savior — tariffs are back and biting.
We are over-indexed, over-aged, and over-leveraged.
Short the hell out of whiskey stocks — the hangover is coming.
1. The Hype is Dead – Bourbon is No Longer Booming
Once upon a time (read: 2010s), bourbon was America's darling. Craft cocktails, whiskey flights, hipsters in flannel waxing poetic about oak notes and “mouthfeel.” Every major distiller ramped up production expecting eternal growth.
But now? The party’s over:
• According to the Distilled Spirits Council, total whiskey sales dropped each year from 2021 to 2023.
• Craft distilleries are sitting on unsold product while majors are drowning in barrels.
• Millennials are drinking less overall. Gen Z is drinking even lesser-er.
• Tequila and RTDs (ready-to-drink) are eating whiskey’s lunch.
2. The Numbers Are Brutal
• 1.4 Billion Proof Gallons of bourbon/whiskey maturing right now in the US.
• 79 Million Proof Gallons sold domestically in 2023.
• 95 Million Proof Gallons sold globally (including domestic).
• That's less than 7% of total inventory being moved in a year. Even if whiskey sales stopped declining, we’re looking at a 17+ year supply glut — assuming no new barrels were added (they are).
And these barrels? They can’t just sit forever. Overaged bourbon is a real thing. You can’t sell a 25-year-old whiskey for $300 when nobody wants to pay $30.
3. Tariffs Are Back, Baby
EU tariffs on American whiskey, which were temporarily suspended in 2022, are set to return in 2025 if an agreement isn’t reached. Spoiler alert: it’s not looking good. Trade tensions are heating up again, and whiskey is a prime target.
International sales, especially to Europe, plummeted during the 2018–2021 tariff era. Expect déjà vu.
4. Targets on the Rocks 🧊
Let’s talk about which stocks are sitting on ticking time bombs:
🥃 $BF-B – Brown-Forman (Jack Daniel’s, Woodford Reserve)
• 75% of revenue is from whiskey.
• International exposure means tariffs really hurt.
• Flat to negative revenue growth YoY in whiskey segment.
• PE ratio of 40+. What are we doing here?
🥃 $DEO – Diageo (Bulleit, Johnnie Walker, etc.)
• Heavy whiskey exposure, especially globally.
• Already warned on earnings due to North American weakness.
• Share price has slid almost 20% in the past 12 months.
• Still valued like it’s 2019. Not for long.
🥃 $STZ – Constellation Brands (High West Bourbon, plus beer & wine)
• Not as whiskey-heavy, but their foray into high-end spirits is faltering.
• They overpaid for whiskey brands banking on growth that never came.
• Beer might save them… but their whiskey segment will drag.
5. The Technicals Look Rough Too
All of the above tickers are either:
• In multi-year downtrends
• Showing head-and-shoulders topping patterns
• Or sitting at precarious support levels about to break
Throw in a rate-sensitive consumer, declining bar/restaurant traffic, and a glut of supply?
This is a macro + micro + technical triple threat.
Conclusion: Pour One Out… and Buy Puts
This is the classic boom-bust commodity cycle — but with brown liquor instead of oil. Overproduction, declining demand, and geopolitical risk are going to wreck margins and valuations.
I’m eyeing mid/long-dated puts on $BF-B and $DEO in particular. They’re the most exposed, the most overvalued, and the most likely to disappoint when earnings hit.
Because when the whiskey stops flowing, so does the cash.
Disclosure: I’m short ice cubes and long Japanese whisky. Not financial advice, you drunken fools.