China’s cracking down on rare earth exports. $CRML might be one of the few ways to play it. (Repost with screenshot of positions 🙄)

There’s a smallcap stock I’ve been buying recently that I think is worth a look: **Critical Metals Corp ($CRML)**. It’s not another lithium meme or one of those “we’ve got 40km of land in Namibia and a dream” deals. This one actually has a fully permitted rare earths mine. Not just any rare earths — **heavy** ones. In Greenland.

Rare earths are a group of 17 elements that power everything from EV motors to fighter jets. The ones that matter most — dysprosium, terbium, yttrium — are used to make high-performance magnets. Those magnets go into missiles, wind turbines, and the drivetrain of pretty much every electric car that isn’t a golf cart. If the clean energy transition is the software, rare earths are the hardware.

Problem is, **China produces over 90% of global supply**, and they’ve just added rare earths and magnets to their restricted export list. It’s not an outright ban, but it gives them the option to deny export licenses to anyone — like the U.S. The last time China weaponised rare earths, prices went vertical. That was 2010. What’s changed since then? Not much. The West still doesn’t have a backup plan.

This is where **$CRML** comes in. The company owns the **Tanbreez project** in Greenland. It’s massive. 45 million tonnes of resource, 27% heavy rare earths, already has a mining license through 2050. The PEA came out in March with a $3.6B NPV and a 180% IRR. That’s not a typo. It’s on the coast, has year-round shipping access, and the plan is to crush the rock in Greenland and ship it to the U.S. or Europe for refining. No radioactive waste. No China. No ESG drama. Just a mountain full of Dy and Tb that’s permitted and ready to go.

They also own **Wolfsberg**, a lithium project in Austria with a signed offtake to BMW. DFS is done. They’re planning to build the processing plant in Saudi with a JV partner. That part of the story gets overlooked, but it’s real.

The stock got wrecked after its SPAC merger. It ran to $22 in early 2024 on hype and a tiny float, then slowly bled out as the market forgot it existed. Hit a low of $1.23 in April this year. That’s despite a string of positive news: full resource estimate, updated PEA, $24.5M raised in a PIPE at $5 with $7 warrants. Float’s still small. I think the bottom is in.

Now, I’m not pretending this is as simple as “market cap is $200M and Tanbreez is worth $3.6B, therefore it 18x-es.” That’s lazy math. These projects need funding. There will be dilution. Timelines matter. But even if you haircut both assets by 50%, and assume some reasonable amount of dilution, you still get to a base case around **$6**. If either the U.S. or EU throws grant money at it — which is likely — or an offtake deal lands, then it gets re-rated fast. Bull case is higher. Bear case is probably $1.50 floor.

I’m in. **10,000 shares at $1.70.** I don’t need this to go back to $22 like it did post-SPAC. I’ll be happy if it just re-rates to reflect the assets and the macro backdrop. I’ll be even happier if China keeps squeezing.

Obviously, **DYOR**. This is still early stage and pre-revenue. But if you want real exposure to rare earths — and you think the U.S. and EU will eventually pay up to fix their supply chains — this might be the only game in town.