Plenty of BEAR takes here for Monday so let me give the BULL take. This week has been rocky so first a little recap
Monday: Wasn’t really following that deeply. Looked like it was just bottoming and correcting. BULL
Tuesday: Yippys. BEAR
Wednesday: Tariff reduction worldwide and increase in tariffs on China. This showed Trump was willing to work with other countries and was willing to potentially remove tariffs. BULL
Thursday: People realized Trump was doubling down on China. Most of our industry including Tech which holds up the economy is based there. BEAR
Friday: Trump indicated that the bond market was why he made the reversal. This shows people that Trump is willing to complete nuke the U.S. economy and will step in if things get too out of hand. BULL
Saturday: Official white house “clarification” on tariffs on semiconductors exclusion to include smartphones and other electronics. Shows Trump again isn’t willing to nuke critical industries in America. BULL
Sunday: Nutlick says tariffs for semiconductors and electronics are coming at a later time in a month or so in separate sector specific tariffs. BEAR
THIS COMING MONDAY: People realize that the “month or so” is a tactic to buy time for a trade deal and it is Nutlick’s job to posture like this so they don’t look weak. A full trade deal with China and the world will probably be worked out in "a month or so". Markets also realize this is old news that the admin has been saying forever. The biggest mistake is assuming that Trump is an irrational actor; it’s a matter of figuring out what his lines in the sand are. Trump has shown in the past week that he isn’t willing to nuke the bond markets and destroy tech companies to manufacture here which is what the biggest concern for markets were and why they’ve dropped so much from ATHs. He is even refunding them tariffs paid; if this isn’t proof enough that he doesn’t want to hurt them I don’t know what is. Markets legitimatelly thought he would embargo the world, US manufacturing only here and now no matter what, recession be damned. The weekend news only reiterates that this isn’t the case. BULL
Long term sentiment is that yes, other countries are still getting tariffed 10% and non electronics from China like clothing and raw materials are getting hit hard. I forsee 10% tariffs being removed for most countries in exchange for more open trade policies (less regulation towards American goods). I foresee Chinese trade tariffs also being lowered in the short term to help with transition with some sort of incentive for American companies to move manufacturing to the US (because tariffs aren’t incentive when you don’t have time to onshore because you’ve gone bankrupt). I think Trump recognizes that the biggest tech companies can’t move instantly but wants to put pressure on them to start making concrete moves to manufacture domestically that they can’t reverse once he's out of office. In that sense, he has a strict timeline and I think he recognizes that.
I am not a financial advisor. Obviously a random tweet could throw all my theories completely off here.