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REDDIT

Here’s why I don’t think China will cave

A
Apr 9, 2025 · 03:40

It's kind of the body of evidence the last ~10 years or so.

First we have the Huawei and BYD situation. We (the US) basically locked some of their biggest companies out of the US market and guess what happened. Huawei took a hit but they came roaring back. They went ahead and dominated all the other markets.

Then we have TikTok. The US has been pressuring China to sell TikTok for almost half a decade now. Not once have they moved an inch on this. We keep saying the sale is close and keep push it back 75 days. Even if a deal eventually gets done, I bet China's (Bytedance) is still going to own a major stake in it.

Then we had the Nvidia chips ban which was a total flop. Don't sell them the best chips. Well they went ahead and made DeepSeek anyway. What we should have done instead is sell them the chips but add a tariff. We basically forced their hand and now they are making their own chips to rival Nvidia. We inadvertently strengthened their semi production capability by imposing this ban.

And let's not forget COVID. Long after the world opened up because of economic, societal pressure ... China held on to their own detriment. They endured excruciating economic pain in the process, they also had the property collapse. This tells me the country has an unusual amount of tolerance for economic carnage.

It kind of reminds me of the Office where Michael Scott is negotiating the sale of his company with David Wallace: "I don't need to wait out Dunder Mifflin, I just need to wait out you." The I here is China and the you in this case is Trump.