Alright you greasy-fingered gamblers, it’s time. This is your early heads-up on a sleeper banger: NerdWallet ($NRDS).
THE SETUP:
- Current Price: $9.28
- EPS Estimate: $0.24 (reporting 4/24)
- Market Conditions: ???
- Sentiment: Dead. Zero hype. Beautiful.
They don’t need a blowout to move big — they just need a solid beat, and $NRDS has historically ripped off decent earnings.
They are a financial lead gen business, and even if we get hit with a recession they will still make bank on people trying to lower insurance rates or consolidate debt.
Q1 is historically super hot for financial lead gen companies because their buyers have refreshed budgets and appetite and people start trying to save money again. Insurance carriers (a major partner of their insurance business) have turned around their business post COVID and are looking healthy and hungry.
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LAST TIME (Feb 2024):
They beat estimates, guided solid, and the stock casually jumped ~20% in a week while no one was watching. They crushed their earnings.
This time? Expectations are just as muted, if not more. IV is manageable, sentiment is crusty, and the setup is nearly identical. Their price has been slammed by the 🍊🤡
Earnings are reporting 4/24 with estimate EPS at .24.
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Modeling 30-day post-earnings upside based on beat strength:
- +15% (soft beat): ~$10.67
- +25% (solid beat): ~$11.60
- +40% (blowout): ~$13.00
I’m eyeing $11.50–$12.00 as the sweet spot by May 24 if they clear the bar and offer even halfway decent guidance.
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TINY BONUS NOTE:
They blew cash on a Super Bowl ad this year with a talking whale (voiced by Kieran Culkin, no less). I’m not saying that alone moves the stock, but it shows they’re going hard on growth—and if that ad moved the needle at all, it could help juice user metrics just in time for earnings. Millions of views on YouTube. Insiders are not selling their granted stocks they’ve received so far this year.
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Im in for 5/16 $10 calls, going to keep adding though.
TL;DR:
NRDS has a habit of going vertical off clean earnings beats. EPS est is $0.24, and if they post a $0.28–$0.30+ with strong guidance, we’re looking at a +25–40% move in 30 days. Super Bowl commercial + insurance partner recovery + Q1 cyclical performance should boost numbers. Low expectations, low hype, and the nerds are ready to rip.
Not financial advice unless it hits, then I was always right. I just like the stock.