What is your DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) Outlook for the short term? (6 months - 2years)
I have heard significant talk about tariffs and the trade wars they will cause, the souring of US international relations and the impact this will have (and may already be having) on domestic companies and their revenue, the dramatic numbers being seen in many companies’ P/E ratios (with some referring to it as a “bubble”), among many other macroeconomic negative pressures on US equities.
Predictive indicators that have been fairly accurate over recent time (buffet ratio, shiller ratio, etc) seem to be screaming that the stock market as a whole is over valued right now.
E.g Buffer ratio (total US Stock market value / US GDP) = 187.4% as of today
(“significantly overvalued”, https://buffettindicator.net)
I hear the words of Benjamin Graham very loudly as I type this, saying “If we cannot be sure that the market is overvalued now, how could we ever be sure?” (1972). And my goal in this post is to not hear about your long term strategy, how you’re going to DCA regardless, how you havent checked your portfolio in a year, etc etc.
Im genuinely wondering, what is your speculative prediction for the next 2 years-ish and why, and if you are of retirement age or retired, how are you managing your short term outlook? How do you believe these macroeconomic influences, and the current state of the stock market will actually be reflected in terms of a % up or down on the DJIA by end of 2025?
Thanks all for your time. Would love to hear about other indicators you follow also, even just for speculative fun.