SPX DD: (Almost) Every Time SPX Hits Correction After ATH, It Comes Back Down Again

TLDR: since the 1960s, there was only 1 time (out of 10) when SPX enters correction from ATH without going back down to near-correction price.

Alright degenerates, I did some real homework. Went back to 1928 and looked at every time the S&P 500 hit a fresh all-time high, then dropped 10% or more — a classic “correction.” Here's the TL;DR:

If SPX hits an ATH and then corrects -10%, but then bounces back up above that correction level, it always drops back down to 91% of the ATH (aka a -9% drawdown from the top) within 60 trading days.
Doesn't matter how good the rebound looks. Doesn’t matter how hard Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen/JPow flexes. It’s like gravity.

There is one recent exception in 1997 though. I can't explain that away so take this however you like.

Position: currently $40k in puts, will buy more if it rebounds.

[puts](https://preview.redd.it/h447xzzkw4re1.png?width=510&format=png&auto=webp&s=23e502ec1f6aa46a97a6b998d96d5a23f5d03272)

Detailed case-by-case analysis (thanks to ChatGPT, obviously):

Corrections from All-Time Highs (1928–2023)

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|**ATH Date**|**ATH Close**|**Date ≥10% Below ATH**|**Rebounded Above -10%?**|**≤91% of ATH within 60d of Rebound?**|**Lowest Close**|**Days to 91% Breach**|
|1928-05-14​|20.44|1928-06-12​ (-10.3%)|**Yes** (quick recovery)|**No** (continued new uptrend)|18.34​|–|
|1929-09-07​|31.92|\~1929-10-04 (≈-10%)|**No** (fell straight >15%)|N/A (no rebound)|17.66​|N/A|
|1955-09-23​|45.63|1955-10-11 (-10.6%)​|**Yes** (bottomed & rallied)|**No** (no secondary dip)|40.80​|–|
|1956-08-02​|49.74|1957-02-12 (-14.8%)​|**Yes** (partial rebound)|**Yes** (fell again within 60d)|38.98​|\~30 days|
|1959-08-03​|60.71|1960-09-28 (-13.6%)​|**No** (no rebound >90%)|N/A (fell >10% steadily)|52.48​|N/A|
|1961-12-12​|72.64|1962-05-28^† (\~-10%)|**No** (fell into bear)|N/A (no rebound)|52.32​|N/A|
|1966-02-09​|94.06|1966-05-16^† (\~-10%)|**No** (straight >15% drop)|N/A (no rebound)|73.20​|N/A|
|1968-11-29​|108.37|1969-06-26^† (\~-10%)|**No** (straight >15% drop)|N/A (no rebound)|69.29​|N/A|
|1973-01-11​|120.24|1973-03-28^† (\~-10%)|**No** (fell into bear)|N/A (no rebound)|62.28​|N/A|
|1980-11-28​ ​|140.52|1981-03-10^† (\~-10%)|**Yes** (mid-’82 rally)|**Yes** (new low by Aug ’82)|102.42​|\~50 days|
|1983-10-10​|172.65|1984-03-27^† (\~-10%)|**No** (single -14% drop)|N/A (no second dip)|147.82​|N/A|
|1987-08-25​|336.77|1987-10-05 (\~-10%)|**No** (crashed >15%)|N/A (no rebound)|223.92​|N/A|
|1990-01-02​|359.69|1990-01-30 (-10.2%)​|**Yes** (recovered)|**Yes** (new low by Feb 1990)|322.98​|\~30 days|
|1990-07-16​|368.95|1990-08-23^† (\~-10%)|**No** (fell -19.9%)|N/A (no rebound)|295.46​|N/A|
|1997-10-07​|983.12|1997-10-27 (-10.8%)​|**Yes** (recovered quickly)|**No** (no second drop)|876.99​|MYSTERY|
|1998-07-17​|1186.75|1998-08-31 (-19.3%)​|**No** (straight >15%)|N/A (no rebound before -15%)|957.28​|N/A|
|1999-07-16​|1418.78|1999-08-31^† (\~-10%)|**Yes** (autumn rally)|**Yes** (new low by Oct ’99)|1247.41​|\~20 days|
|2000-03-24​|1527.46|2000-04-14^† (\~-10%)|**Yes** (summer rebound)|**Yes** (fell ≤91% by Jun ’00)|776.76​|\~40 days|
|2007-10-09​|1565.15|2008-01-08^† (\~-10%)|**Yes** (Spring ’08 rally)|**Yes** (fell <91% by Jun ’08)|676.53​|\~30 days|
|2015-05-21​|2130.82|2015-08-21 (-10% intraday)^‡|**Yes** (late-’15 rebound)|**Yes** (fell <91% by Jan ’16)|1829.08​|\~50 days|
|2018-01-26|2872.87|2018-02-08 (-10.2%)​|**Yes** (Feb–Mar recovery)|**Yes** (retested Apr ’18)|2581.00​|\~40 days|
|2018-09-20​|2930.75|2018-10-29^† (\~-10%)|**No** (fell -19.8%)|N/A (no rebound)|2351.10​|N/A|
|2020-02-19​|3386.15|2020-02-27 (-12% intraday)^‡|**No** (crashed -33.9%)|N/A (no rebound)|2237.40​|N/A|
|2022-01-03​|4796.56|2022-02-22 (-10.3%)​|**Yes** (Mar ’22 rally)|**Yes** (fell <91% by Apr ’22)|3577.03​|\~20 days|

Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.