CAPR: Post-Earnings Update – Resilient Amid Market Turmoil & Valuation Estimates
CAPR surged **+20% post-earnings** to \~$14.36, reaffirming its resilience despite broader market volatility. This update follows my previous DD post, which was removed but is now eligible for reposting.
Despite the move, **CAPR remains significantly undervalued** given its upcoming **FDA decision (PDUFA: Aug 31, 2025)**, its **revenue share with Nippon Shinyaku (30-50%)**, and **a likely $1.2M per patient per year price tag** for Deramiocel.
**Deramiocel U.S. Pricing – Now Expected at $1.2M Per Year**
📌 **From Capricor’s March 2025 Investor Deck:**
• 15,000–20,000 DMD patients in the U.S.
• 200,000 DMD patients worldwide
• $27B+ market size by 2030
• **Target reimbursement price: $1.2M per year (higher than initial expectations)**
🔹 **Comparable Rare Disease Drug Pricing:**
• **Zolgensma** (one-time gene therapy): **$2.1M**
• **Elevidys** (one-time gene therapy for DMD): **$3.2M**
• **Deramiocel** (quarterly infusions, ongoing treatment): **$1.2M per year**
Unlike one-time gene therapies, Deramiocel is **a recurring treatment**, meaning **consistent revenue potential for CAPR**.
**Post-Earnings Takeaways**
✅ **Cash runway secured into 2027** – **$152M cash on hand**.
✅ **Milestone payments from Nippon Shinyaku** – $10M received, **$80M expected upon approval**.
✅ **FDA Priority Review** – **PDUFA date set for Aug 31, 2025**.
✅ **Revenue Model** – **30-50% share of net sales revenue** from Nippon Shinyaku.
✅ **Manufacturing expansion underway** – preparing for **commercial launch**.
CAPR’s stock popped on this **fundamentally strong report**, yet it **remains well below fair value**.
**Stock Holding Strong Despite Market Selloff**
Since my **March 5 post**, the major indices have **dropped sharply**:
📉 **Dow Jones:** \-2.17% (42,518.37 → 41,593.96)
📉 **NASDAQ:** \-4.59% (18,312.97 → 17,472.00)
📉 **S&P 500:** \-3.10% (5,781.36 → 5,602.00)
Meanwhile, **CAPR surged post-earnings, now around $14.36**, showing **continued accumulation**.
**Updated Valuation: What’s CAPR Worth?**
If **Deramiocel is priced at $1.2M per patient**, CAPR’s revenue share could be **$900M–$1.5B annually**.
📌 **Revenue Breakdown:**
• **Conservative estimate:** 2,000 U.S. patients + 500 EU patients
• **Annual treatment cost:** $1.2M per patient
• **Total potential revenue:** **$3B/year**
• **CAPR’s share (30-50% per agreement with Nippon Shinyaku):**
• **Low-end (30%):** $900M/year
• **High-end (50%):** $1.5B/year
📌 **Other Cash Inflows:**
• **Priority Review Voucher (PRV):** Likely worth **$100M–$150M**
• **Milestone Payments from Nippon Shinyaku:** **Up to $1.5B total**, some paid on approval
**Valuation Based on Revenue Multiples**
Biotechs typically trade at **5-10x peak revenue once commercialized**.
• **$900M revenue → Market Cap: $4.5B – $9B**
• **$1.5B revenue → Market Cap: $7.5B – $15B**
📌 **Implied Stock Price Range:**
• **Low-end estimate:** **$90/share**
• **Bull case:** **$200+ per share**
At **$14.36/share (\~$630M market cap)**, CAPR **remains priced as if Deramiocel will fail**. If successfully approved and commercialized, it could still **5x-10x+ from here**.
**Options & Short Interest Update**
📌 **Short Interest:** **Still elevated (\~20% of float)** – A forced short cover could add **fuel to upside moves**.
📌 **Options Positioning:** **Bullish activity remains strong**.
**Updated YOLO Position 🚀**
Since my last post, I’ve **added more** to my position and now hold **935 September $15 Calls**.
📌 **Cost Basis:** $5.41 per contract
📌 **Market Value:** \~$551,650
📌 **Day Gain:** **+$144,925 (35.63%)**
**Final Thoughts**
🔥 **TL;DR:** CAPR **surged post-earnings**, but it’s still undervalued.
• **$1.2M drug pricing confirms upside is even higher than initially estimated.**
• **Market skepticism on Nippon Shinyaku’s sales ability may be holding it back.**
• **Strong financials + clear FDA path = Still a 5-10x potential.**
If **August approval happens**, expect a **major re-rating event**. 🚀
**Disclosure:** Not financial advice. Just documenting my YOLO.