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Arm Holdings plc - The implications of Softbank finacial health and japanese yields.

P
Feb 17, 2025 · 11:09

In my opinion, **Arm Holdings plc** is setting up for a nice short possibility due to the financial situation of its owner, **SoftBank** (90% ownership of Arm).

# Why?

* Rising **Japanese** yields/strengthening yen → **Tightening** conditions for borrowing/their existing debt.
* Loss at **Vision Fund** / Core business.
* **CEO's announcement spree** that can't be met (inflated share price).
* **Insane Price/Sales ratio** of ARM (TTM): **45.82**

# Trigger?

* Liquidity issues **intensify**, and SoftBank needs to raise money → **Selling of ARM shares.**

# The problem?

**Timing, as usual!**

So I'm asking the geeks: **How would you play that?**

* Which puts are cheap, and how far out would you go?
* Or would you just take **knock-out certificates** with a conservative leverage (**x2/3**)?