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Only 25% likelihood of a bear market after a correction

S
Mar 17, 2025 · 01:25

From Yahoo FInance Morning Brief (March 15, 2025):

"Detrick's work shows that since World War II, the S&P 500 has experienced 48 corrections. However, only 12 of those corrections have turned into bear markets, meaning 75% of the time, a correction doesn't spiral all the way down to a bear market.

""Maybe we go into a correction, but we do not see a bear market coming," Detrick told Yahoo Finance. "Early in the post-election year, choppiness is normal and that's kind of what's happening."

"The swift nature of the recent pullback is also typically a good barometer for how the index bounces out of correction, according to BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian Belski. In a research note on Friday, Belski highlighted that outside of the pandemic, no correction since World War II that happened as quickly as the current one has led to a bear market.

""These types of corrections that happen this fast go right back up and recover just as fast, if not more," Belski told Yahoo Finance. He added that this makes him "very comfortable" with his 6,700 year-end target for the S&P 500."

https://mail.yahoo.com/n/list/folders=1&listFilter=ALL_INBOX/messages/3752