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Qbts and quantum hype: a cautionary tale

Positions: none. Don't buy this.

\*insert obligatory WSB intro using casual, edgy slang of the youths to show I belong and am held in high regard\*

Full disclosure: I wrote this because I'm a professional investigator with a deep contempt for financial fraud.

Today, quantum computing company QBTS announced in its quarterly report what it always does: no profit and millions in losses. Yet its price surged 20% based on an[ online article ](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ado6285)from *Science* published the day before its quarterly, on March 12\*.\* According to the [QBTS website](https://www.dwavequantum.com/company/newsroom/press-release/beyond-classical-d-wave-first-to-demonstrate-quantum-supremacy-on-useful-real-world-problem/), the article demonstrates that a QBTS quantum annealing computer "outperformed one of the world’s most powerful classical supercomputers," solving "in minutes \[w\]hat would take nearly one million years and more than the world’s annual electricity consumption to solve using a classical supercomputer.”

Truly astonishing. But also almost entirely false.

The first problem: the article doesn't really say that. It says that the QBTS computer hypothetically beat the supercomputer based on the article's assumptions. And that's a problem, because the article was written almost entirely by QBTS employees. Nor would it be a new discovery: a [draft was posted last year](https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.00910). And there's the biggest problem of all: the article's conclusion [was already debunked by the same group of scientists who have debunked every other overblown quantum claim](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/quantum-computing-milestone-challenged). You can do the same calculations on an [ordinary laptop computer](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2471426-doubts-cast-over-d-waves-claim-of-quantum-computer-supremacy/).

It isn't clear why a respected scientific journal would choose to publish this kind of article on the very day it would make the most impact on QBTS stock. But other media outlets quickly recognized the problems underlying QBTS's claims and the issues posed by *Science* publishing corporate fluff: [WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/articles/d-wave-claims-quantum-supremacy-beating-traditional-computers-155ca634), [Nature](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00765-1), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-d-waves-claims-of-quantum-advantage-just-quantum-hype/), etc.

Quantum computing will one day make an enormous impact on the world and is a great technology worthy of investment. Even perhaps QBTS. But at the moment, quantum computing only has one major commercial value: getting you to invest in it. And you can do that. Just know what you are getting into.