CAPR: Resilient Amid Market Turmoil – Follow-Up DD & Valuation Estimates

Despite trading at **$12.77**, CAPR’s fair value should be between **$75 and $200+** based on **expected Deramiocel pricing, revenue share, and industry valuation multiples**.

At an estimated **$1M per patient per year** and **30-50% revenue share with Nippon Shinyaku**, Capricor’s cut could be **$750M–$1.25B annually**. Applying a standard **biotech multiple of 5-10x peak revenue**, CAPR’s market cap should be **$3.75B–$12.5B**, translating to **$75–$250 per share** (vs. \~$580M market cap today).

# Stock Holding Strong Despite Market Selloff

Since my **March 5** post, the **major indices have tanked**:

📉 **Dow Jones**: **-924.41 points (-2.17%)** (**42,518.37 → 41,593.96**)

📉 **NASDAQ**: **-840.97 points (-4.59%)** (**18,312.97 → 17,472.00**)

📉 **S&P 500**: **-179.36 points (-3.10%)** (**5,781.36 → 5,602.00**)

Meanwhile, **CAPR is still holding up around $12.77**, showing impressive **relative strength** as broader markets bleed. Someone is **accumulating**.

# YOLO Position Update 🚀

Since my last post, I’ve **added to my position** and now hold **910 September $15 Calls**.

📌 **Cost Basis:** **$5.44 per contract**

📌 **Current Mark Price:** **$4.50**

📌 **Market Value:** **$409,500**

📌 **Day Gain:** **+$29,506 (7.76%)**

[Current Position](https://preview.redd.it/3woxxkm694oe1.png?width=1290&format=png&auto=webp&s=c350a1317603926b796750a9a7b7072524bd7840)

Not financial advice—just documenting my own **high-conviction trade**.

# March 19 Earnings Call – What to Watch

Capricor **officially set** its **Q4 earnings call for March 19**. Expect updates on:

✅ **Cash runway** – They previously said **funding is secure until 2027**. Will they reaffirm?

✅ **FDA Priority Review progress** – Any hints at an **early decision**?

✅ **Deramiocel commercialization details** – Could they confirm **U.S. pricing at \~$1M per year**?

# Deramiocel U.S. Pricing – $750K–$1M Per Year?

Speculation suggests **Deramiocel could be priced between $750K and $1M annually**.

🔹 **Comparison to other rare disease drugs**:

* **Zolgensma** (one-time gene therapy): **$2.1M**
* **Elevidys** (one-time gene therapy for DMD): **$3.2M**
* **Deramiocel** (quarterly infusions, ongoing treatment): **$750K–$1M per year**

Unlike **one-time gene therapies**, **Deramiocel is a chronic treatment**, meaning **recurring revenue** for CAPR.

📌 **Potential Insurance Challenges**: Payers may resist the cost initially, but rare disease drugs typically secure **strong reimbursement**.

📌 **From Capricor’s March 2025 Investor Deck**:

* **15,000–20,000 DMD patients in the U.S.**
* **200,000 DMD patients worldwide**
* **$27B+ market size by 2030**
* **Target reimbursement price expected to be similar or higher than exon-skipping therapies**

(Source: [CAPR Investor Deck – March 2025](https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_5945d8f28f1592eeef48b5ce9959442b/capricor/db/2227/21450/pdf/CAPR+March+2025.pdf))

# Market Cap & Price Target Calculation

**Revenue Breakdown**

* **Conservative estimate**: **2,000 U.S. patients + 500 EU patients**
* **Annual treatment cost**: **$1M per patient**
* **Total potential revenue**: **$2.5 billion/year**
* **CAPR’s share of revenue** (per agreement with Nippon Shinyaku):
* **Low-end (30%)**: **$750M/year**
* **High-end (50%)**: **$1.25B/year**

**Other Cash Inflows**

* **Priority Review Voucher (PRV)**: Likely worth **$100M–$110M**
* **Milestone Payments from Nippon Shinyaku**: **Up to $1.5B total**, some paid **on approval**

# Valuation Based on Revenue Multiples

Biotechs typically trade at **5-10x peak revenue** once commercialized.

* **$750M revenue → Market Cap: $3.75B – $7.5B**
* **$1.25B revenue → Market Cap: $6.25B – $12.5B**
* **Current share count \~50M**

📌 **Implied Stock Price Range**:

* **Low-end estimate**: **$75/share**
* **Bull case**: **$200+ per share**

At **$12.77/share (\~$580M market cap)**, CAPR is currently priced **as if Deramiocel will fail**. If approved and commercialized successfully, **this could 5x-10x+ from here**.

# Options Activity

📌 Short **Interest**: **\~8.16M shares (\~20.39% of float)** – still **highly elevated**.

📌 **Options Positioning**: Put/call ratio **\~0.49**, showing **bullish positioning via calls**.

# Final Thoughts

🔥 **TL;DR:** CAPR is holding **incredibly well** despite a market downturn. If Deramiocel is priced at **$1M per year**, CAPR’s fair value should be **$75–$200+ per share**.

March 19 earnings could be a major catalyst. Let’s see what happens. 🚀

*Disclosure: Not financial advice. Just documenting my YOLO.*