I’m no Tesla expert, and I’m sure plenty of people know way more about the company than I do, but I wanted to throw out some thoughts and see what you all think.
Right now, TSLA is sitting around $330 a share, up 75% YOY. But honestly, I see some major red flags:
📉 Shrinking Profit Margins – Tesla’s margins have been steadily declining for years. Not a great trend.
🏴☠️ Musk’s PR Nightmare – Elon literally gave a “Sieg Heil” on live TV. Now, a huge chunk of the world sees him (and by extension, Tesla) as a Nazi. That’s… not exactly great for brand reputation.
🚗 Cybertruck is a Mess – Poor build quality, tons of issues, and at this point, it’s basically a meme.
🌍 New Political & Tariff Risks – Tesla is vulnerable to steel and aluminum tariffs, an anti-EV U.S. President, and a California governor who hates Musk and might pull state EV rebates.
⚡ Serious Competition is Catching Up – Tesla isn’t the undisputed EV/FSD leader anymore. Other companies are matching—or surpassing—them in innovation.
🚦 FSD is Overhyped – Despite all the robotaxi talk, Tesla’s self-driving tech is still only Level 2-3. Meanwhile, other companies already have Level 4 robotaxis on the road.
🔋 Rising Costs = Profit Squeeze – Raw material costs are going up, and Trump’s tariffs on China-made batteries could make things even worse.
🤖 Tesla is Struggling to Attract Top AI Talent – Even before Musk’s latest antics, nearly all top AI researchers and recent ML PhD graduates from the top schools were choosing OpenAI, Anthropic, or GAMMA (Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Apple) over Tesla or xAI. Now? Even fewer want to work there, which could hurt Tesla’s AI progress.
🔵 Losing Left-Leaning Consumers – Left-leaning buyers are way more likely to buy EVs than right-leaning ones. And almost every left-leaning consumer has grown to despise Musk, leading them to choose non-Tesla EVs instead.
Tesla used to be the Nvidia of EVs—they were miles ahead of everyone else. But that’s just not the case anymore. There are more non-Tesla EV options every year, and in terms of FSD, several companies already have a better product and better talent. So, to me, a $1.1 trillion valuation feels ridiculous.
What do you guys think? Am I being too bearish, or is Tesla in for some rough times ahead?