HISTORICAL FED RATE HIKE CYCLES AND CPI AT THE START
1) Late 1970s–Early 1980s (Volcker Era)
• Start of hikes: August 1979
• Fed funds rate around start: ~11%
• CPI around start: ~11.8%
• Context: Inflation eventually topped 14%. The Fed raised rates aggressively (sometimes above 19%).
2) 1983–1984 Tightening Cycle
• Start of hikes: Mid-1983
• Fed funds rate around start: ~9.5–9.6%
• CPI around start: ~2.5–3%
• Context: By mid-1984, the funds rate neared 11.75%. CPI rose to about 4%.
3) 1988–1989 Tightening Cycle
• Start of hikes: March–April 1988
• Fed funds rate around start: ~6.5%
• CPI around start: ~4–5%
• Context: The Fed eventually raised rates near 9.75% by mid-1989, before the 1990–91 recession.
4) 1994–1995 “Preemptive” Hikes
• Start of hikes: February 1994
• Fed funds rate around start: ~3.0%
• CPI around start: ~2.7%
• Context: Rates rose from 3% to 6% by 1995, while CPI hovered around 2.5–3%.
5) 1999–2000 Tightening Cycle
• Start of hikes: June 1999
• Fed funds rate around start: ~4.75%
• CPI around start: ~2.1–2.2%
• Context: The Fed hiked to 6.5% by mid-2000. CPI hit about 3.5–3.7% in early 2000 before the dot-com bust.
6) 2004–2006 “Measured Pace”
• Start of hikes: June 2004
• Fed funds rate around start: ~1.0%
• CPI around start: ~3.0%
• Context: The Fed steadily raised rates to 5.25% by mid-2006. CPI peaked near 4.7% in late 2005, then eased.
7) 2015–2018 Post-Financial-Crisis Tightening
• Start of hikes: December 2015
• Fed funds rate around start: ~0.25%
• CPI around start: ~0.7% (late 2015)
• Context: The Fed gradually lifted rates to ~2.25–2.50% by late 2018. CPI stayed near 2% for much of that period.
8) 2022–Present (Pandemic-Era Inflation Spike)
• Start of hikes: March 2022
• Fed funds rate around start: ~0–0.25%
• CPI around start: ~7.9% (Feb 2022)
• Context: Inflation topped 9% by mid-2022. The Fed rapidly raised rates above 4% by the end of 2022, and further in 2023.
KEY POINTS:
• There is no fixed CPI level that automatically triggers hikes. The Fed considers a range of data (employment, growth, financial stability) alongside inflation trends.
• Historically, sustained CPI above ~2–3%, paired with a strong economy, often leads to tighter monetary policy. In some cases (1979 or 2022), the Fed waited until inflation was already high before hiking aggressively.