GOOGL → $252.00 by Oct 5, 2026.

Last year I posted a breakdown in this sub arguing Microsoft was overvalued at $490 because of its [capex spend](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1p9ks0t/understanding_michael_burrys_nvidia_short_the/). But that thesis was never really about Microsoft - it applies to every hyperscaler pouring money into AI. Last week I updated my [MSFT valuation ](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1uio0by/six_months_ago_we_called_microsoft_overvalued_at/)and applied the same model to [Meta](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1umbmng/the_meta_version_of_my_microsoft_capex_breakdown/). Today, I'm pointing it at Alphabet. Please read the previous posts for details about the methodology. **Capex and cash flow** In FY2025, Alphabet's operating cash flow jumped from …