MSFT → $483.00 by Oct 7, 2026.

Over the last couple of weeks, I posted DCFs on the three big hyperscalers - [Microsoft](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1uio0by/six_months_ago_we_called_microsoft_overvalued_at/), [Meta](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1umbmng/the_meta_version_of_my_microsoft_capex_breakdown/), and [Alphabet](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1upov82/google_looks_cheap_at_27x_earnings_but_a_dcf/). The most common pushback, especially on the Google post, was that I was counting the cost of the AI capex without giving credit for the return it will eventually earn. It was a fair criticism, so instead of arguing about it, I ran the model backwards to actually estimate the numbers. Read the other posts to fully understand the reasoning. One …